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Rain in Seattle
Imagine you're about to fly to Seattle and need to decide whether to pack an umbrella. To figure this out, you contact three friends living in Seattle, each chosen at random, and ask if it's raining. Each friend has a 2/3 probability of giving you an honest answer and a 1/3 probability of jokingly lying. All three friends respond with a "Yes," indicating that it is raining. What is the probability that it is truly raining in Seattle?