Subscription Churn

Imagine you're tasked with forecasting the churn rate for a subscription-based service. In January 2020, you observed that approximately 10% of customers who purchased subscriptions canceled before their next billing cycle on February 1st. Assuming new customers join evenly throughout each month and that the churn rate decreases by 20% each subsequent month, what would be the expected churn rate for March for all customers who subscribed since January 1st?